THE MODERN CYCLES OF HISTORY AND ECONOMICS.

1. The 2000s, economic crisis and war.

         Each ±70 years, we go from the happy consumption years…
… the 1850s…                   the 1920s and…          the 1990s to…

The quiet times of the 90s, a happy age, when people had safety and wealth to enjoy life, is over. Suddenly we find ourselves in a world in crisis, at war, where ‘weapons of mass destruction’ and terrorism have erased happy smiley from our faces. While economical crisis, poverty and unemployment swipes away the wealth of nations… What happened? Which are the underlying reasons for such a radical change in history?
Beyond punctual events that have aggravated that change, like the fall of the Twin Towers that illustrates our cover, those radical transformations need deeper causes to be properly explained. It seems as if the economic and political world were changing under the law of the historical pendulum, from a peaceful economy into a military one, from a Welfare Government to a Security State. Why we enter an Orwellian world of controlled security and perpetual war, similar to the one the English writer forecasted so many years ago?
In order to answer that question we would have to compare this change with a similar transformation that happened in history about 70 years ago and inspired the work of Orwell.
The happy 90s looked like the happy 20s. But suddenly the World of the 2000s has changed, as it changed the world of the ominous 30s. In both ages, a tremendous crash on stock-markets due to an overproduction of machines (radios and cars in 1929, electronic goods in 2000,), has sunk the economy, increasing unemployment and social inequality. But instead of following alternative policies to raise consumption and restrain the crisis, through subventions to the welfare state and the poor (), our governments have decided to raise military consumption and social control. Thus, our politicians invest in weapons and fight a war against terror that ignores international human rights and conventions. In other words, after the 2000 crisis our economy has changed from making computers to make smart weapons … as it changed in Germany from making cars to make tanks - “cannons instead of butter” – it was said at the time. The similarities of both historical cycles are clear:
70 years ago Hitler won the elections due to the ‘red scare’ and used the burning of the Reichstag; to build up a security state in Germany, taking the country out of economical crisis with huge investments in weapons… The most industrialized nation in history became soon a War Machine. But few worried, since after I W.W. and the humiliating peace signed at Versailles, Germany had ‘good press’ and was seen by many as a historic victim. There was on the views of those ‘friends of Germany’ certain historic legitimacy on Mr. Hitler´s territorial claims and his revenge against the communist terrorists that burnt down the Reichstag.
70 years later, Sharon is chosen president of Israel and undertakes, with similar historical justifications, the conquest of land in the western territories, building a wall to fence away ‘Palestinian terrorists’. While Bush defends America from the Islamic terrorists that burnt down the Twin Towers… As ‘victims of terrorism’ both countries feel justified to create a new world order without the cooperation of other nations, unnecessary given the military superiority of both countries. Therefore, not only in the economic world but also in the political world we found some parallels in an age of neofascist tendencies… On the other hand, in the social world both unemployment and social protest grow in intensity. Finally, in the artistic world a baroque, extremely creative but pessimistic style has been established, as it happened among the great artists of the 20s, the time of the isms.
The 2000s have brought economic crisis, social unrest, neofascism, baroque art and war… 5 mimetic changes to those the world witnessed in the 30s, cannot be caused by pure chance.

… to an age of machine´s overproduction and stock-exchange crashes…

Indeed that historical similarity is not trivial. It is a cyclical change that modern history experiences every 70 years approximately. If we go backwards in time, we will see a similar change when the happy 1850s, marked by the railroad craze, finished in the ominous 1860s that brought wars in America (the Civil War) and Europe (the Italian & German Unification wars). 70 years before, the calm world of the “Ancien Regime” also was shattered by the French Revolution and the Napoleonic wars. So every 70 years the world changes after a big economic crisis, from a happy time to an age of war and destruction, the age that now begins worldwide. As a pioneer in the science of systems applied to human societies that studies those economic and historic cycles from a scientific, biological perspective, I’ll try in this WEB to go beyond the obvious and clarify their deeper causes. Since its scientific knowledge is necessary if our politicians and economists wish to cure the present historic and economic crisis and direct mankind towards a better world, instead of worsening the crisis they pretend to alleviate, with wrong measures, similar to the errors politicians and economists made in the 30s, bringing about W.W. II:

1860-71: Unification  Wars        1936-45: W.W.II.                     2001: W.W. III